Scenario Planning

Rather than focusing on a single future for the region, we use scenario planning to explore a range of possible futures. Since the company's formation in 1998, Fregonese Associates has been at the forefront of using scenarios to help communities make informed decisions. For each project, the team develops a series of alternative growth land use and transportation scenarios that incorporate workshop participant and stakeholder feedback.

We start with a "base case" scenario that shows how a place will look, function and feel if current trends in development, transportation, and population growth continue. Given current trends, we can estimate the amount of land consumed by development, the number of people able to access transit, and how well the area’s housing supply can meet demand. All of these factors are indicators produced by scenario planning.

Using the base case scenario as a control, we can then develop alternative scenarios to illustrate how policy choices today could affect the community in the future. Our team looks at the market, fiscal, and environmental effects of each scenario. We compare the alternative growth scenarios against one another based on community values identified during the public involvement process. Then the team uses surveys and videos to poll residents about their preferred vision for the future. This preferred vision becomes the basis of the final plan. 

Some of the firm's award-winning work for Envision Utah and Chicago Metropolis used scenario planning.

This graphic shows three alternative scenarios developed in the Central Texas region.